LAWS666 — Unit 11 — Readings and Viewings

Climate Change as the Ultimate Test for the Framework Convention Approach

1/4 We shall provide you with video choices, first either watch “a” and “b” in under 15 minutes combined for the high school science presenter-style for pro and con on climate change and science, or watch “c” for 1-1/2 hours of National Geographic lush videography on climate change with Leo Dicaprio as star, and a notable cast of international worthies as supporting actors (or watch a-c, if you have time to better inform yourself):

2/4 Read the leading treaties and agreements concerning climate change, that you heard references to, or not, in the videos:

3/4 Concerning the climate science aspects, read the summary for policymakers of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report for background, and Chapter 19 of the second volume of the US 4th National Climate Assessment. The IPCC Sixth Assessment was scheduled to be ready by Spring 2021, but it was just announced that it would be delayed because of the COVID-19 pandemic. That is why the UN climate science materials are effectively six years old at this point, and the slightly more timely reports like the 2018 Sixth Assessment Special Report on 1.5 Degree Centigrade increase speaking to likely conditions 2030-2045 are only a little more current (because the underlying scientific as opposed to editorial work was done more 2016-17):

  • a. IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014)
  • b. U.S. 4th National Climate Assessment (U.S.), Volume I (2017)
  • c. U.S. 4th National Climate Assessment (U.S.), Volume II (2018) – Chapter 19 addresses issues in the Southeastern U.S., including a case study of Charleston’s sea level rise.

You should note that the most current talk in the climate science community is that some things are happening sooner than expected. The talk is about changing or updating models, based upon those which might have previously been considered outliers, but seemingly predicted the unexpected developments. Compare Roston, “The First Arctic Summer Without Ice Is Coming in Just 15 Years: New models convinced a team of scientists to move up projections for the first summer in 130,000 years without sea ice” (Bloomberg, 08/17/20) with Roston, “Climate Models Are Running Red Hot, and Scientists Don’t Know Why: The simulators used to forecast warming have suddenly started giving us less time” (Bloomberg, 02/03/20) with Roston, “Record Ice Loss in Greenland Is a Threat to Coastal Cities Worldwide: Data from two new studies gives scientists a much clearer idea of what’s contributing to sea-level rise” (Bloomberg, 08/21/20).

4/4 We shall add to the readings whatever Dr Linda Yanti Sulistiawati asks that you read in preparation for her discussion on what it looks like to participate in a climate change “COP” or UN-organized conference of the parties negotiating meeting as a member of a major developing state delegation (which meetings are coincidentally currently in abeyance due to the COVID-19 pandemic). So you understand how the treaty institutions work, the COPs are the periodic working party meetings that follow a framework convention at which they may work on scientific reports and subsequent protocols. Such meetings normally take place annually, although there is no rule strictly speaking, or formal measure of progress, so the parties could meet for 3-5 years of annual COP discussions before enough progress is made, or technical/scientific reports received, to formulate any formal protocol as amendment.